India-Pakistan War: Air Strike Routes & Safe States

India-Pakistan War Scenario: Expected Air Strike Routes, Safe States & Strategic Insights

Tensions between India and Pakistan have long captured global attention. In the unfortunate event of a full-scale war, especially one involving air strikes, understanding the strategic geography, strike routes, and safe regions within India becomes crucial. This post offers an in-depth analysis of the possible air strike directions, likely targets, and which Indian states would remain safe during such a conflict.

1. Expected Air Strike Directions – Pakistan to India

If Pakistan were to initiate air strikes, they would likely come from the west, targeting Indian regions near the border. Based on military geography and past operations, these are the expected directions:

a. From Punjab (Pakistan) to Indian Punjab & Jammu

• Likely Targets: Amritsar, Pathankot, Jammu

• Reason: Proximity to the border, presence of airbases and military infrastructure.

• Risk: High

b. From Sindh (Pakistan) to Rajasthan & Gujarat

• Likely Targets: Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jodhpur, Bhuj

• Reason: Desert terrain allows low-level flying; targets include Indian airfields and logistics hubs.

• Risk: Medium to High

c. From POK into Jammu & Kashmir

• Likely Targets: Kupwara, Poonch, Leh

• Reason: History of insurgency and strategic locations.

• Risk: Very High near LoC

2. If India Strikes First: Likely Air Strike Routes into Pakistan

India’s air strike strategy would depend on military objectives and target selection. Past missions (like the Balakot strike in 2019) give us a blueprint.

a. From Jammu, Punjab into Pakistani Punjab & POK

• Launch Bases: Pathankot, Adampur, Ambala

• Targets: Terror camps in POK, Pakistani airbases (Sargodha, Murid)

b. From Rajasthan/Gujarat into Sindh

• Launch Bases: Jodhpur, Bhuj, Naliya

• Targets: Radar bases, airfields, Karachi naval assets

c. Long-Range Strikes from Central India

• Aircraft from Gwalior, Agra (Mirage, Rafale) can carry precision-guided bombs and strike without crossing the border

3. Indian States Likely to Be at Risk

These states may face air strikes or border conflicts due to their proximity to Pakistan:

• Jammu & Kashmir – High risk due to Line of Control (LoC) and insurgency.

• Punjab – Contains important airbases and logistics hubs.

• Rajasthan – Large desert border; history of tank battles and skirmishes.

• Gujarat – Border with Sindh and vulnerable coastal zones.

• Delhi (National Capital) – Though heavily protected, it's a symbolic target.

4. Indian States Likely to Remain Safe

These states are geographically distant from conflict zones and are not likely to be directly impacted:

Southern India

• Tamil Nadu

• Kerala

• Karnataka

• Andhra Pradesh

• Telangana

Eastern and Northeastern India

• Odisha

• West Bengal

• Assam & NE states

Central India

• Madhya Pradesh

• Chhattisgarh

Why Safe?
These states are far from Pakistan's reach for short- to mid-range air strikes and have no direct border conflict involvement.

5. India’s Defense Capabilities

India is well-prepared with:

• S-400 missile defense systems

• Advanced warning radars (AWACS)

• Air superiority jets (Rafale, Su-30MKI, Mirage-2000)

• Layered air defense networks near border states

Conclusion

While a war between nuclear-armed nations like India and Pakistan would have catastrophic consequences, understanding the likely military paths and safe zones can provide some clarity. Most of India would remain geographically safe, especially in the south and east. However, border states must remain alert and prepared.

Peace is always the preferred solution—but awareness and preparedness can help protect lives if tensions escalate.